JDB Engineering, Inc.

Fully-integrated engineering solutions for systems and buildings; Engineering with Creativity...Leadership by Design

  • About
  • Services
    • Mechanical Engineering
    • Electrical Engineering
    • Plumbing Engineering
  • Markets
  • Connect
    • Careers
    • Talent Wanted
You are here: Home / Archives for Trends

Nov 07 2018

The State of the A/E/C Industry

State of the A/E/C Industry

By Scott D. Butcher, FSMPS, CPSM

What are the current economic conditions within the architecture, engineering, and construction industry? How are the market sectors and geographic regions performing?

There are quite a few indicators that track the health of the industry, and we’ve gathered many of the major metrics in one place to make your environmental scanning easy as you head into planning for 2019!

Click on the image to enlarge the State of the A/E/C Industry infographic, or surf here for a downloadable PDF for sharing!

Architectural Billings

State of A/E/C Industry - ABI

The first stop on this tour of the A/E/C industry’s economic health is the American Institute of Architects’ Architectural Billings Index (ABI), which is broken into several categories. Overall, the ABI for billings is at 51.1 for the latest month. As the ABI is a diffusion index, any score above 50.0 demonstrates growth over the prior month, while any score below indicates decline. The most current data available is for September 2018, and the score of 51.1 demonstrates a billings increase over August. However, the August score was 54.2, so we know that although the billings continue to increase, there is a decreasing rate of growth.

The AIA tracks Design Contracts and Project Inquiries as well. While billings is a lagging indicator – that is, the work has already happened – Design Contracts are very much a real-time indicator, capturing what is happening right now. In August, there was a retraction in contracts with a score of 49.6. However, the index rebounded in September with a score of 54.1, a significant jump. Project Inquiries is a leading indicator of future workload. The September score of 58.8 is impressive, building upon the 58.0 score of the prior month.

Additionally, with the latest ABI survey, the AIA asked architects about revenues for the year, and as an average, AIA members are projecting a net revenue growth of 7.5% for the year.

State of A/E/C Industry - ABI Geographic

The ABI is also broken into four large geographic regions. Three of the four experienced billings growth in September:

  • Midwest = 59.7 (52.5 in August)
  • West = 51.3 (54.2 in August)
  • South = 54.1 (57.0 in August)

The Midwest experienced a major increase in growth, while the West and South both reported slowing growth. However, the Northeast did not fare as well, seeing a steeper decline in billings than it had the prior month:

  • Northeast = 46.6 (46.9 in August)

State of A/E/C Industry - ABI Sector

In addition to geographic regions, the ABI is also broken into major market sectors as follows:

  • Commercial/Industrial = 50.8 (53.6 in August)
  • Institutional = 55.1 (52.3 in August)
  • Residential = 54.9 (55.6 in August)

All markets experienced an increase in billings in September, although the growth in Commercial/Industrial as well as Residential billings slowed compared to the August data.

A/E/C Employment Trends

State of A/E/C Industry - Architectural Employment

The next series of charts depicts the employment trends for A/E/C firms, based upon data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. All three data sets demonstrate healthy growth over the past year, although architectural employment, as well as engineering and drafting employment, both depict summer peaks and autumn declines. This is typical of prior years.

State of A/E/C Industry - Engineering Employment

Architectural employment in July hit its highest number since November 2008. Likewise, engineering employment hit a new peak in August. Construction employment has not seen the autumn decline of architecture/engineering, and October data shows the highest employment figure since April 2008.

State of A/E/C Industry - Construction Employment

Please note that the figures for September and October 2018 are preliminary.

Confidence & Momentum

State of A/E/C Industry - Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence in the United States, as tracked by The Conference Board, reached an 18-year high in October 2018 with a 2.6 point increase over September.

State of A/E/C Industry - Construction Confidence

There’s also an industry-specific confidence metric, published by Associated Builders and Contractors and known as the ABC Construction Confidence Index (CCI). The ABC index is broken into Sales Expectations and Profit Margin (as well as Staffing Levels), and is a quarterly metric. Second quarter data from 2018 was released in late September, and is the most current period available. Like the AIA’s ABI, the data utilizes a diffusion index, with any score above 50.0 demonstrating an increase over the prior period. Survey participants are asked about their expectations for the forthcoming six months.

The CCI for Sales Expectations climbed to 72.6 in the second quarter, up from an already-impressive 72.2. Likewise, the CCI for Profit Margin climbed to 64.5, up from 63.4 in the first quarter. The CCI for Staffing Levels (not shown) fell back slightly, from 70.2 to 69.5, but this figure is still historically high according to ABC.

State of A/E/C Industry - Dodge Index

Another relevant metric is published by Dodge Data & Analytics, known as the Dodge Momentum Index. The index is published monthly and the prior month is often revised at the same time. Dodge further breaks the data into Commercial Building and Institutional Building.

The overall figure for September demonstrates a decline of 2.6% in the index, with Commercial Buildings down 4.3% and Institutional Buildings down 0.1%. This was the second straight month of decline, although the third quarter figure is up from the second quarter. Because the index tracks the first, or initial, report of a nonresidential construction project in the planning stage, a handful of large projects can influence the index from month-to-month. Overall, the trend for the year is still positive. For benchmarking, the year of 2000 represents a Momentum Index reading of 100. This index is an indicator of future construction.

Spending, Backlog & More

Construction Put in Place is a data set published monthly by the US Census Bureau. Although it is a lagging indicator – construction has occurred – it is a useful metric for trending, and also provides a way to analyze the activity in 16 market sectors.

State of A/E/C Industry - Construction Put in Place

The data is reported two ways; first, the current month is compared with the prior month. Second, the current month is compared with the same month the prior year. For this report, I’m using the year-over-year comparison, which demonstrates that 14 of 16 markets have experienced growth over the past 12 months.

Only Communications and Religious facilities saw declines over a year ago. Furthermore, seven sectors saw double-digit growth in September 2018, compared with September 2017.

Overall, the metric is showing an 8.9% increase in Construction Put in Place compared with a year ago. Water Supply, Conservation & Development, Transportation, and Lodging were the biggest gainers, while Commercial, Manufacturing, and Health Care saw the smallest levels of growth. This data demonstrates an increase in infrastructure construction – something that has been talked about for years.

State of A/E/C Industry - Construction Spending

Another metric reported by the US Census Bureau is US Nonresidential Construction Spending, and again it is compared against the previous month as well as 12 months prior. Although the data shows a decrease in construction spending from August 2018 to September 2018, there is significant growth over September 2017.

State of A/E/C Industry - Construction Backlog

In addition to the Construction Confidence Index, ABC also publishes a quarterly Construction Backlog Indicator, broken into regions and project types. The columns on this chart demonstrate the average backlogs in months, while the circles depict variances from the previous quarter, in percent.

The average backlog is now 9.9 months, which is a new high for this index. Note that this data is for the second quarter, which is the most current data available. This is also an increase of 12.2% over the previous quarter.

Broken into regions, firms in the South are experiencing the largest backlog levels, slightly more than 11 months. The Middle States region tracked by ABC is the only geographic area not seeing double-digit backlog figures, and also the only region to see a decline, although slight, over the prior quarter.

Firms operating in all three market sectors tracked by ABC experienced growth in backlogs, with both Commercial/Institutional and Infrastructure firms seeing backlogs of just over 10 months. Firms operating in the Heavy Industrial sector report backlog averages of 7.8 months; however, this is a jump of 33% over the prior quarter.

State of A/E/C Industry - Open Construction Jobs

One final metric tracked in this report is open US Construction Sector Jobs, based upon data from multiple sources including the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The figure for August 2018 – the most current available – was 298,000 open jobs, significantly up from the 215,000 figure of August 2017. This trend is not new, although it appears to be picking up speed as construction firms across the country continue to struggle with finding qualified employees. In addition to negatively impacting construction firms’ ability to pursue and deliver projects, the worker shortage also appears to be leading to increased wages, potentially driving inflation growth in construction costs. Stay tuned to see what impact this trend will have on the A/E/C industry.

There’s our latest A/E/C environmental scan. Are there other metrics that you regularly track?

Are you pulling together your strategic and marketing plans for 2019? Need help with planning or facilitation? Contact me at 717-434-1543 or sbutcher@jdbe.com to discuss how jdbIQity can help position your firm for a successful year (and beyond)!

Connect with Scott

  • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scottdbutcher
  • Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottdbutcher

You Might Also Like

  • March 2018 A/E/C Environmental Scan
  • A/E/C Technology Disruption? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet!

 

Written by Scott Butcher · Categorized: A/E/C Industry Posts, JDB IQity, Marketing, Trends · Tagged: A/E/C, Architecture, Construction, Economics, Engineering, Environmental Scan, Trends

May 11 2018

May 2018 A/E/C Environmental Scan

by Scott D. Butcher, FSMPS, CPSM

What’s happening in the architecture, engineering, and construction (A/E/C) industry right now? Firms should always be paying attention to the industry indicators, whether those metrics are leading or lagging. Below you’ll find a current snapshot of some of the best-known metrics in our industry.

American Institute of Architects

May AIA ABI
The most recent data from the American Institute of Architects’ Architecture Billings Index (ABI) shows that in general, the outlook continues to be positive. The AIA uses a diffusion index, meaning any score above 50.0 signifies an increase over the prior period (in this case, the prior month), while any score under 50.0 demonstrates a decrease.

The March data, released a few weeks ago, reveals an overall ABI of 51.0, signifying an increase in architectural billings. The ABI is a leading indicator for the construction industry, providing a glimpse into the work environment for contractors nine to twelve months into the future. However, last month the index scored a 52.0, meaning that this month’s increase was not as much as last month’s. Architectural billings have increased six consecutive months, a positive indicator of the health of the design industry.

The AIA also maintains a Project Inquiries Index, which is an indicator of project opportunities, and thus a predictor of future design workload – as well as construction workload further into the future. In March, the index scored a 58.1, demonstrating a continued high level of interest in design services – which will hopefully convert to design contracts and architectural billings.

Finally, the AIA has a Design Contracts Index, which captures new contracts at architectural firms. The most recent score was 51.5, indicating that design firms are reporting an overall increase in contracts over last month. However, last month’s score was 54.5, so the March increase was not as significant as February’s.

May 2018 AIA ABI Geographic

The Architectural Billings Index is further broken into four geographic regions, and each receive scores on a diffusion index as well.

Three of the four regions within the ABI demonstrated growth in March, with the West and South seeing the largest increases. The Northeast, however, saw a decline in architectural billings. Last month, the Northeast scored 47.5, so this month’s decline was not as large, but a decline over the prior month nonetheless.

May 2018 AIA ABI Sector

The AIA also breaks out architectural billings by four market sectors: multi-family residential, institutional, commercial/industrial, and mixed practice.

Architectural firms specializing in the institutional market sector experienced a slight decline in billings in March. Otherwise, firms practicing in all other sectors experienced an increase in billings.

Dodge Momentum Index

May 2018 DMI
Another indicator of activity in the design and construction industry is the Dodge Momentum Index, which incorporates nonresidential project information. When a project is first reported and captured in the Dodge database, it is tracked via the index. As such, it can be a leading indicator for both design and construction, although some projects never come to fruition and others do so over a period of years.

The Dodge Momentum Index uses 2000 as a base year, with a score of 100. The score for April 2018 was 163.0, an increase of 6.1% over the March figure. The index is further broken down into two categories. The latest data reveals increases of 6.3% for the Commercial Building Index and 5.8% for the Institutional Building Index, indicating positive growth in planned projects in both sectors.

Construction Employment

Although construction employment is a lagging indicator for architecture and engineering firms, it is a gage of health within the construction industry. Information is provided monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For April 2018, the BLS reported an increase of 17,000 net new jobs in the construction industry, including 9,000 for nonresidential construction – most of that from specialty trade contractors.

Related to that is the unemployment rate. Nationally, the rate stands at 3.9%, although within the construction industry it is currently 6.5%, lagging behind the national economy.

ABC Construction Confidence Index

May 2018 ABC CCI

Associated Builders & Contractors (ABC) provides several indices to track the health of the construction industry. The ABC Construction Confidence Index (CCI) has three components: CCI for Sales Expectations, CCI for Profit Margin, and CCI for Staffing Levels. These metrics are published twice a year, and the most recent data was released in April 2018.

According to this survey, contractors are bullish on 2018. Like the ABI, the CCI is tracked using a diffusion index, with 50.0 representing no change, scores above 50.0 representing increases in confidence over the previous period, and scores below 50.0 representing decreases in confidence over the previous period.

The April data shows a CCI for Sales Expectations score of 67.1, up from 66.4 in the prior period. The CCI for Profit Margin was also very strong, scoring a 60.7; however, the confidence increase was not as robust as the prior period, which saw a score of 62.4. The CCI for Staffing Levels score was also very strong, coming in at 65.1 – but not as high as the 66.1 score from the prior period.

ABC further breaks responses into Up Big, Up Small, No Change, Down Small, and Down Big, which can be viewed here.

ABC Construction Backlog Indicator

May 2018 ABC CBIAnother useful indicator published by Associated Builders and Contractors is the Construction Backlog Indicator, a quarterly metric.

The most recent information was released on March 19, and indicates growth in construction backlog for the final quarter of 2017. Overall, the CBI came in at 9.67 months, which is the highest level since ABC has been publishing this metric.

ABC also segments the data by geographic region and a handful of market sectors. Based upon the most current report, contractors in the South and Northeast have the largest backlogs – both regions have a CBI of more than 10 months. Here’s the geographic breakout:

  • Northeast = 10.36 months, an increase of 1.5% over the prior quarter
  • South = 10.99 months, a decrease of 2.9% over the prior quarter
  • Middle States = 8.33 months, a jump of 9.5% over the prior quarter
  • West = 6.97 months, an increase of 5.4% over the prior quarter

Three market sectors are tracked within the CBI, including Commercial/Institutional, Heavy Industrial, and Infrastructure. Within these segments, Commercial/Industrial saw growth, Heavy Industrial experienced decline, and Infrastructure remained essentially unchanged:

  • Commercial/Institutional = 10.07 months, an increase of 8.2% over the prior quarter
  • Heavy Industrial = 5.17 months, a decline of 5.2% over the prior quarter
  • Infrastructure = 12.55 months, a very modest increase of 0.1% over the prior quarter

Construction Spending

May 2018 Census PIP

One final metric in this environmental scan is Construction Put in Place, an indicator published by the U.S. Census Bureau. It is a lagging indicator that represents completed construction projects, but does provide a window into the health of the construction industry. It also tracks 16 nonresidential market sectors, providing a deeper dive than the other indices.

The most recent data is from March 2018, and has a seasonally-adjusted figure of $1,284.7 billion of construction put in place, a decline of 1.7% over the prior month. However, the nonresidential component of the data saw a smaller decline, down only 0.3% from the prior month.

The graphic above is specific to private, nonresidential construction. Public construction put-in-place was unchanged from the prior month.

So there’s a quick overview of the health of the architectural, engineering, and construction industry. When conducting an environmental scan and looking at the data, it’s important to remember that a single data point – whether a snapshot of a month or a quarter – is only a small piece of a big picture. For instance, with the Dodge Momentum Index, a single megaproject can greatly impact the score the month it hits – and can lead to a decline in score the following month unless there’s another megaproject announced in its place. It’s more important to follow the trends from period-to-period to get an accurate gauge of industry activity and health.

What are some of the metrics you follow for your environmental scans? What are other important A/E/C metrics not covered here?

Connect with Scott

  • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scottdbutcher
  • Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottdbutcher 

You Might Also Enjoy

  • The Importance of Monitoring Emerging & Megatrends (external link to Scott’s ENR blog)
  • A/E/C Technology Disruption? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet!

Written by Scott Butcher · Categorized: Business Development, Firm Management, JDB IQity, Marketing, Trends · Tagged: A/E/C, ABI, CCI, Environmental Scan, Trends

Jan 11 2018

A/E/C Technology Disruption? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet!

Technology Disruption
by Scott D. Butcher, FSMPS, CPSM

I recently co-presented about industry megatrends to an audience of architects. We talked about the utter lack of productivity increases in the construction industry over the past several decades. We looked at a chart that demonstrated how, in the 1960s, manufacturing and construction productivity were at similar levels. However, since that point, manufacturing productivity has doubled while construction productivity has slightly declined. And then my co-presenter, William R. Long, PE, LEED AP, FSMPS of P. Agnes Construction in Philadelphia said, “When I got into this industry three decades ago, we used to budget 40 hours for a drawing. Does anyone still use hours-per-drawing to develop project budgets?”

Bill Long
Bill Long

Quite a few people raised their hands.

He next asked, “Okay, so what’s the going rate these days?”

To a tee, everyone with raised hands said “Forty hours.”

Bill shared that he had just led a project management training program for several dozen architects and engineers, and they all reported “forty hours,” too!

Think about that. We’ve gone from hand drafting to AutoCAD to Revit. We’ve taken Building Information Modeling beyond 3D and added elements of schedule (4D) and cost (5D). We’ve evolved from hand-kept ledgers to Lotus 1-2-3 and Excel to robust cloud-based project resource planning software that everyone can access on their tiny portable computers, better known as smartphones.

We have advanced 3D laser scanners to accurately capture building interiors and sites.

We’ve been taught lean methodologies for design and construction, and utilized modular construction and prefabrication.

And yet construction productivity has slipped over the past 40 years – and designers are still budgeting 40 hours per drawing.

By the way, what’s a drawing? Don’t we create building models these days?

“The reality is that technology has enabled exponentially more options for accomplishing our goals today,” says Tom Traina, MBA, SCM, JDB Engineering’s business technology strategist and champion of JDB Insight. “The product and supply chain options available make our decisions more complicated than ever. These sophisticated models have increased the amount of information we have for making the best, most effective decision. So could it be that it takes the same 40 hours to make well-informed decisions?”

The sad fact that many A/E/C firms are facing is that profit margins are still extremely tight. It’s still a buyer’s market out there. Sure, some geographic regions are better than others. This applies to project types, too. But in general, we have limited ability to build robust profits into our projects because the market is so competitive. So if we can’t raise our fees – or if we refuse to raise our fees – then how can we possibly become more profitable?

By becoming more productive.

And while it is critical that we embrace the technologies that are currently available – and that many of us already have at our firms – the reality is that massive disruption is coming to the design offices and job sites. And this change is in the form of technology.

Take, for instance, some of the things that are happening right now:

  • Site, bridge, and façade surveys are being conducted by drones
  • 3D scanning is developing point clouds that create accurate building models
  • Autonomous construction vehicles are being produced in greater numbers – dump trucks, front-loaders, etc.
  • Wearable technology is entering the job site via smart watches and hardhats with computer screens built into their visors
  • Augmented reality and virtual reality are providing more information about what will be – or what is, but hidden from sight – than ever before

Yet design and construction technology is merely in its early stages of evolution.

Have you heard about Autodesk’s Project Quantum yet? Revit is getting pretty old – it was created in 2000. So what’s next? Project Quantum is not a replacement to Revit, but it will change the way Revit is used – and perhaps lead to a replacement. So much of the data in a construction project is siloed. Imagine if architects, structural engineers, MEP engineers, contractors, and fabricators all pulled from a single source of data. That was cloud-based. And represented the “one truth.” How would that change the way projects are designed and constructed? How could that enhance productivity?

Tom Traina
Tom Traina

Tom Traina points out that too many people in our industry look at BIM the wrong way: “Most of us refer to BIM as Building Information Modeling, but we get the ‘M’ wrong. It really stands for ‘Management.’ And Building Information Management is a philosophy, not a technology. Appropriate technology is used to improve efficiency and accuracy of project status when applied to sound processes.”

Autodesk isn’t stopping there, however. They are looking at automation and even artificial intelligence. They are working toward “generative design,” which is a human-computer collaboration. Humans enter the desired goal and key project components into the software, which then comes up with thousands of options. Data is qualified, the best options are evaluated, and then new variables are added to refine the designs. Yes, we’ll still need professional architects and engineers, but the machines will be doing much of the heavy lifting.

This would certainly create opportunities for productivity enhancements and higher profits.

But does the real opportunity come from actually being the disruptor? Tom Traina believes so: “The opportunity still lies in the execution of the designs, the construction. How can these technologies contribute to the construction of the project? The best design is only as good as its execution or construction. Centralizing the information is a great start, and the disruptive technologies allows users to reference and retrieve the information important to them on their own terms. No one controls how they will use the information provided to them. The firms that figure this out become the new winners – and when you displace the incumbent, you become the disruptor. These technologies allow disruptors to cut corners for efficiency and deliver on the job to be done. Uber simply leveraged a medium that both providers and customers already possessed, connected the service with the need using this medium, and got paid for making the connection. In the process they avoided the overhead costs associated with buying, licensing, insuring and maintaining a vehicle fleet and hiring drivers to seek out sales. The corner they cut was eliminating the chance of a taxi-for-hire intersecting a customer in need of a ride. What a waste!”

Building Internet of Things

At the same time, the A/E/C industry is talking about BIoT, or the Building Internet of Things. Energy systems, lighting, security systems, parking, watering, etc. – these are all functions of a building and site that are being incorporated into the Building Internet of Things. How will this new technology improve the quality of buildings and work environments for occupants? How will A/E/C firms integrate their services with these advancements in technology?

“By providing more information to make better decisions,” believes Tom Traina. “The actual consumption of utilities is traditionally a blind spot for managers. The gallons of water used divided by hours of operation is a macro view. BIoT cuts a corner to provide a micro view to identify exactly which tasks and machinery consume the most water. People are the disruptors, but the technology enables it.”

Beyond the A/E/C Industry

There’s a whole world beyond the A/E/C industry – albeit a world that will greatly impact what our firms do in the future. Some futurists predict that the next car you purchase will be your last. Of course, some members of the Millennial generation aren’t even interested in getting a driver’s license to begin with, much less owning a vehicle. They have Uber and Lyft to get around – and in the future, these fleets will be autonomous. When families downsize from two cars to one car, and then to no cars, what will they do with more disposal income, not being tied to car payments? How will they reclaim their garages? Will there even be a need for driveways?

And what will become of all the parking garages in urban environments around the world? Today, parking garage designers are planning future uses into their designs. But the vast majority of existing parking garages don’t have much of a future. They will be demolished. How will cities reclaim these spaces? More new buildings – or spacious urban parks?

And speaking of urban parks, have you seen the EDG Loop in New York City? This concept utilizes projections for driverless vehicles creating far fewer vehicles clogging the roads, allowing some streets and highways to be for autonomous vehicles only – and other roads with dedicated lanes for these vehicles. The EDG Loop predicts much faster commutes around Manhattan – and envisions Broadway and Park Avenue becoming totally vehicle free, allowing for creation of new linear parks, ample greenspace, and no car-human interaction in these areas.

Of course, even the idea of driverless cars is perhaps shooting too “low.” NASA and Uber are collaborating to create flying autonomous taxis. And in Dubai, they’re already testing 2-passenger autonomous drones that hop from rooftop to rooftop. How will this change the fabric of urban environments? To catch a taxi or order an Uber in the future, will you have to go to a roof? How will buildings be repurposed?

Likewise, how will highway systems change in the future? Will there be opportunities to reclaim highways and streets around the world – either for new development or for green space? Will human-driven cars become illegal?

Tom Traina notes that “These extreme examples of change also increase the level of risk the customer will have to take. A successful disruption introduces a level of risk compensatory with the value of the solution. I am not necessarily willing to risk a take-off and a landing for 3-block ride, but what if it is too rainy to walk? So how much of this is attempting to force-fit nifty technology breakthroughs into a potential business windfall?”

We’re just scratching the surface with technology disruption. (Some futurists believe that we’ll have cyborgs by 2045.) However, these examples have a direct relationship to the built environment – either designing it, constructing it, or impacting it.

These current and forthcoming technologies will totally change our business models – and hopefully make our industry more productive and more profitable. Of course, we all need to be part of this solution, part of this future, lest we become obsolete. If future artificial intelligence will handle much of the design work, and robots and autonomous vehicles much of the construction, what is the role for humans?

“The role of humans,” says Tom Traina, “is to elevate their thinking to disrupt the traditional ways of doing things. Artificial intelligence will be used to work through permutations of a problem that humans have been able to do, but not as fast or accurately. It is not much different than a middle school student moving from learning times tables to using a calculator. Once armed with a calculator, you are now ready to tackle more complicated problems using complex formulas.”

So where do you think we are on the disruption curve in the A/E/C industry? Are we still at the times tables, or are we closer to the scientific calculator? What technologies do you think will have the greatest potential to add immediate value to the A/E/C in the near future? Which ones will be the most disruptive?

Concerned about disruption at your firm? Contact JDB Insight’s Tom Traina at 717.434.1581 or email him to discuss the challenges you are facing.

Connect with Tom

  • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomtraina/ 
  • Twitter: https://twitter.com/tdtraina

Connect with Scott

  • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/scottdbutcher
  • Twitter: https://twitter.com/scottdbutcher 

Written by Scott Butcher · Categorized: JDB Insight, JDB IQity, Technology · Tagged: Disruption, Technology, Trends

Feb 26 2016

Design & Construction Trends: Where Are We Headed? Part III

By Scott D. Butcher, FSMPS, CPSM

In covering the AEC industry trends for 2013 and beyond, we’ve had two posts and four trends.  The first post addressed Commoditization and Focus on Individual Team Members.  The second post  covered the War for Talent and Era of the Employee.

In this post we’ll look at two more trends: technology and proof of concept.

BIM Revolution

Building Information Modeling (BIM) has been considered a trend for several years, and the fact is that BIM is a reality and here to stay.  Yet, BIM technology – while no longer in its infancy – is probably only in the toddler stage.  On the 3D design-side, not all software programs are created equal, so while a program like Revit Architecture is pretty advanced, its MEP cousin is playing catch up.  A lot of engineering firms I’ve spoken with still find that productivity is better with AutoCAD, though in fairness that program has been around a lot longer and has many more fluent users.

BIM holds great promise for taking 3D design models and integrating schedules (4D), costs (5d) and life cycle management (6D).  But the technology to do this is not necessarily ready for prime time.  Not all software programs play nice with one-another, and sometimes third-party programs are required to get A to talk to B.

On top of the technology challenges, there is the issue of adoption.  Architecture, engineering, and construction firms have implemented BIM at varying levels – including many who haven’t yet done their first BIM project.  This is changing, but until all designers and builders – including sub-contractors – are fully implemented, the true benefits of BIM will remain elusive.

Furthermore, the elephant in the room is owner adoption of Building Information Modeling.  Few owners are sophisticated enough to take the detailed models and incorporate them into the everyday management of their facilities and equipment life cycles.  Most owners seem to have a laissez-faire attitude, happy to realize any coordination, budget or schedule benefits, but really only caring about the final product, not how designers and constructors choose to get there.  They have no use for the model after the project is completed, and thus they aren’t involved with providing vital information into the model early in the process – information that could make their facilities management lives easier if they were capable of maintaining the model after the project ended.  While many owners use CAFM programs like Maximo and Archibus, few integrate them with BIM.

BIM can be a major diffentiator between competing firms, and those who can effectively sell the benefits of BIM during design and construction, and be able to demonstrate those claims are true from past project experience, still have an opportunity to stand out.

There are a lot of design firms using Revit for 3D design, but not a lot of firms that have experience with a truly integrated building model at all stages of a project.  This is changing, of course, and the playing field is slowly leveling.  However, it will take several more years to get there, and in the interim the AEC industry needs to do a better job educating owners about the benefits of BIM as it relates to the lifecycle of a building or system.

Evidence-Based Design & Marketing

There’s a generation – or two – of people in the workforce that still occasionally use a famous movie catchphrase, “Show me the money.”  Cuba Gooding, Jr.’s football character in Jerry Maguire famously made Tom Cruise’s sports agent character shout out “Show me the money” during a telephone conversation.  To many people, the phrase has become synonymous with “prove it.”

And that’s the basis for our next trend: proof of concept.  Many AEC firms operating in the health care industry are already familiar with the concept of Evidence-Based Design, which Wikipedia defines as “field of study that emphasizes the importance of using credible data in order to influence the design process.”  The genesis of this concept in the design and construction industry is research into how design of health care facilities could help patients by minimizing stress, creating an environment for healing, reducing length of stay, etc.

This is a really interesting concept in that it moves design and construction into a new research-based realm.  Decisions made during the design process are based upon prior verifiable research.

Think of it as lessons learned on steroids.

Whereas we often talk about lessons learned from previous projects, these are mostly anecdotal, and mostly in the heads of only a few people.  Evidence-Based Design, on the other hand, brings in a more formal approach to research and documentation from studies, interviews, surveys, statistical analysis, and other methodologies.

Because of the success in the health care industry, the concept has spread to other market segments.  How do interior finishes impact worker productivity?  Does daylight help students get better grades?  In fact, the green building rating programs incorporate concepts from Evidence-Based Design, with proven methods or products earning points toward certification.

Thought-leading firms in the industry have embraced Evidence-Based Design as the next evolution of the profession.  Just check out this edition of Gensler’s Dialogue, which demonstrates the breadth of their research initiatives (PDF): http://www.gensler.com/uploads/documents/D19_03_08_2011.pdf.  They are conducting research across the market segments served by the company.

I believe that this trend is having a direct impact on the way we promote our firms as well, and I call it Evidence-Based Marketing.  For every claim we make, the prospect is thinking, “Show me the money!”  A value proposition is meaningless unless you can back it up with evidence of that value.

In a way, a testimonial letter, reference, or referral is Evidence-Based Marketing.  A happy client is verifying that they had a positive experience with your firm, and your deliverables (whether design or construction) met or exceeded their expectations.

One of the recurring themes of these posts about where the design and construction industry is headed is that clients are becoming more sophisticated.  And because of that, the need for “evidence” will become increasingly common – evidence of design success, evidence of marketing accuracy.  Not a lot of firms are doing this.  Yet.  So it is a great differentiator for those that are.

What do you think?  Is BIM ready for prime time, or still finding its legs?  Are your clients currently asking for evidence of any kind?  How will you respond when they do?

New_Website_Slogan

Written by Scott Butcher · Categorized: A/E/C Industry Posts · Tagged: Marketing, Scott Butcher, Trends

Feb 26 2016

Design & Construction Trends: Where Are We Headed? Part II

By Scott D. Butcher, FSMPS, CPSM

In the last post I wrote about two of the trends impacting the AEC industry – Commoditization and Focus on Individual Team Members.

This post continues the trends series, and focuses on two more areas related to staff: the War for Talent and the so-called Era of the Employee.

War for Talent

The Great Recession may have forestalled this next trend, but it is squarely in our headlights now.  Employment in some sectors of the AEC industry is down significantly, but many people have also left the business for good.  Many Baby Boomers delayed retirement, but are now beginning to retire, or at least making plans to do so.  And there aren’t enough students currently enrolled in architecture, engineering, and construction-related programs to offset the void that will soon be created.  Plus, of those enrolled, many are international students, who plan to return to their homes abroad upon graduation.

How bad could this problem really be?  In 2012, McGraw-Hill published an informative SmartMarket Report, Construction Industry Workforce Shortages.  The authors found that 37% of architectural and engineering firms believe they will struggle to find enough skilled professionals (with ten or more years of experience) by 2014.  General contractors share a similar concern – with a whopping 49% of those surveyed stating that they are concerned that there won’t be enough craft workers (with ten or more years of experience) within two years.

Two years!  What makes this even more notable is that the architectural and construction professions have seen jobs cut by as much as 30% since the recession began – and the 2012 AIA Firm Survey found that architectural firm revenues are down 40% from 2008.  So employment is down, business is down, and yet firms are fearful that there won’t be enough quality employment candidates in the coming years.

Furthermore, this talent war will be “every firm for itself.”  Companies in secondary markets will compete with those in major metropolitan markets as the “back to the cities” trend continues and professionals move back to the urban cores.  Design firms will compete with construction firms for the same people – and this is happening now.

I primarily work on the design side of the business, and my company has lost promising engineering hires to construction firms, and others to larger metropolitan areas.
Our story is not unique, and yet this talent war is only just beginning.  How is your firm position to deal with this?

Era of the Employee

Employees have more choices than ever before.  True, employment in AEC industries is down from its peak a few years ago – but there are always firms looking to hire.  Many that downsized are growing again.  Employee retention has to be a key strategy for any AEC firm, and the retention policies must begin with the understanding that things have changed.  Employees have more power today, and they increasingly expect to be treated differently.  Employee loyalty to their employers has declined, and a recent Deloitte survey found that 65% of employees across various industries are looking to switch jobs.  Furthermore, only 28% of Generation X members in the workforce plan to stay in their current jobs!  Why does this matter?  These are the people that are moving into firm leadership positions, running projects, and helping to bring in work through their expanding network of contacts.  They are also the individuals that often have the restrictive credentials mentioned in the Focus on the Team Members post.

Monster.com, LinkedIn, and other websites regularly offer a smorgasbord of jobs, so even those who aren’t planning to switch jobs are being exposed to new career opportunities almost daily.

According to a recent survey by the Corporate Executive Board, employees value other things more than money.  They ranked job-interest alignment, manager quality, co-worker quality, people management, respect, and collegial work environment ahead of salary when asked what matters most.   If employees don’t understand how they’re helping to making a difference, or they don’t care for their boss or colleagues, they have little incentive to stay – even if they are well paid.

We are in what is sometimes referred to (though not universally) as the Knowledge Era, which has evolved beyond the Information Age.  Companies like Starbucks, Google, Microsoft, and others have led the way – just reference Google’s “Innovation Time Off” model, which allows employees to spend up to 20% of their time innovating.  Do you think that Google employees feel that their work matters?  Companies of all shapes and sizes are updating their work areas to be team-focused, adding lounges or employee cafés, implementing telecommuting capabilities, and allowing flexible working hours.

What is critical about this trend is that a company needs to understand what is important to its employees, and then work to have a workplace that aligns with their staff.  Gone are the days when a company could afford to say “take it or leave it.”  Losing even one employee can have a major impact on a company.  Think about a few of your key people – not just your leaders, but also your doers.  What would happen if one or two of them left the firm tomorrow?  What would the immediate impact be?  And what would happen if you couldn’t replace them with hires of equal caliber?

I began this post stating that these two trends relate to staff, and they absolutely do.  But they have huge implications for marketing, too.  When pursuing work – with new clients and even with existing clients – your firm is only as strong as the weakest member on the team.  If you can’t recruit the right people, or retain the ones you have, your prospects for future work will drop dramatically because your team won’t have the “right” credentials.

Firms that thrive in the near future will have aggressive recruiting and retention programs, and will seriously reevaluate and evolve their corporate culture, benefits, policies, and even facilities to keep the employees they have and attract quality new prospects.

Is your company prepared for these two trends?  Have you already experienced them firsthand?

New_Website_Slogan

Written by Scott Butcher · Categorized: A/E/C Industry Posts · Tagged: Marketing, Scott Butcher, Trends

  • 1
  • 2
  • Next Page »

Pennsylvania Mailing Address: PO Box 22160 | York, PA 17402 | 717.757.5602

Maryland Office: 913 Ridgebrook Road, Suite 216  | Sparks, MD 21152 | 410.771.3433

© 2023 JDB Engineering, Inc. · Rainmaker Platform